$10 diesel? One Ohio analyst says it's possible.

The article draws on two of our data visualizations. The first is our Diesel to Fuel Surcharge calculator, which follows the diesel price into the fuel surcharge on goods shipped by truck and rail. OCJ reports that the surcharge rose from 11% to 14% in September 2025 to 21% to 27% this September, and that $10 diesel would put it at 30% to 37%. The second is our seasonal chart of U.S. oil, gasoline and diesel inventories, which OCJ cites to show diesel reserves at their lowest for this time of year since at least 1980.

The article also covers why the diesel supply is under strain heading into winter: refineries putting off scheduled maintenance to meet high global demand, the September 13 outage at a refinery in Joliet, Illinois, and heating oil demand that rises as temperatures fall. It closes on why, in our view, a fuel tax holiday or a ban on diesel exports would not fix the low supply underneath the price.

Read the full story here. There is no paywall.